With the recent news of Kevin Smith not getting an offer, I think we need to look at free agency. Now I have debated about talking contract and cap numbers. The problem is I really don't know how much people will sign for and without the CBA I don't the know cap number. These contracts are so complex they are really tough to gauge, but as an accountant I do believe that I could really help show you guys what it would do to the cap. You can raise the signing bonus to reduce the contract number or have future escalators and there is always player performance type incentives in there. There really is about an infinite amount things you can put in a contract. Now the Raiders gave Stanford Routt 3 years $31.5 million, I would have thought $8 million. Now everyone has said what a ridiculous contract this is, but they are tough to predict, but I will do my best. Now I am going to estimate the salary cap at $150 million. With Dallas already at $136.6 million before free agency and the draft it is tough to go below $150. It appears the latest number for the Lions to be $113.8, but with plenty of spots to be filled.
QB
You want to sign Drew Stanton back. If that happens Robinson would be cut.
RB
I don't see a point in keeping Aaron Brown around. He was just kind of specialty player and Logan can fill that role that is unnecessary but a nice thing to have. Maurice Morris played well when he got in and should be kept. Now a power RB is needed whether it is Kevin Smith or Mark Ingram through the draft. The other RB really could be about anyone. I certainly don't think you draft Ingram. Do you sign a third RB behind Morris, I don't think so. I think you sign a backup RB, but is good enough to get in on every series. Best really is not your ideal starting RB. You like to pound the ball up the middle on first and second downs. I think your looking at a short yardage type guy. I think Jason Snelling is your ideal free agent. His contract would probably be around $2.5 mil. Tim Hightower would be another consideration around $2 mil. I think Kevin Smith would be an excellent fit, but obviously there injury issues there. Maybe resigning Jerome Felton could fill this role and you would still want to bring in another cheap guy. Ladell Betts is a guy you can get signed for under a million or a Mewelde Moore around $1.5 mil. These guys would put Morris as option number three. I think it's unlikely that the Lions get someone late in the draft or sign someone real cheap after the draft whether it is a undrafted rookie or not.
WR
Without a doubt need a third guy. The only two guys you can count on the roster is Megatron and Burleson. Everyone else really could be gone. Plaxico probably would be the best fit and at a great price more than likely. Steve Breaston is a guy I really like. He would cost around $3 mil maybe more. Burleson makes $5 mil and you probably want a guy that is going to be less than that. Sidney Rice and Santonio Holmes are wanting big paydays and will probably want around $5 mil. Now Rice is a guy that may want to beat the Vikings up and would be an excellent addition to the Lions. I don't think anyone will give him a huge payday because of the injury. Push comes to shove these two are signing based on the dollar amount. A fifth round speedster is a very viable option.
TE
Done
OL
If your looking at bringing someone in it has to be guard. Really can't sign a tackle or a center. Atlanta has two on the market they both deserve a big payday. Harvey Dahl is one of those guys and probably wants $5 mil. He is 30 and will probably end up with a 3 year contract around $10.5 mil. Justin Blalock is the other Falcon and he would be a huge addition to the Lions. He is 27 years old and coming off a 4 year $5 mil contract. I think you offer him 5 years $12.5 mil. Every Packer free agent will be hard to sign with the LBs they have on run their roster currently. Daryn Colledge would be an excellent fit, but he would cost around $2 mil.
DE
With Avril having a tender offer. We are pretty well set if he signs, especially with a 1st and 3rd round tender on him. I think the people that you sign here are extremely young guys that add depth. Lawrence Jackson is 25 you keep him, Turk McBride at 25 you bring back, and Willie Young at 25 you keep. Now one of these guys can be cut for bigger and better things. About the only bigger and better thing is Vernon Gholston and I don't know if you want a guy like that on your team. He also could fill a void at LB, but his character would have to be proven. If you put him around a KVB (Kyle Vanden Bosch) who knows though.
DT
I think I will be the only person to say that Corey Williams needs to be looked at long and hard. This guy had way to many penalties.Andre Fluellen got a tender offer which I think was a good move. Sammie Lee Hill has improved every year and has looked good. You could look at bringing one guy in to add depth. Now Suh has an excellent motor and is an every down DT and proved he had the endurance. Compare that to Shaun Rogers who is a stud, but can only play a third of the downs. You don't need as much depth there. They should consider bringing in a project like Jason Fox at the OT position. They want to stay young and wisely so. I think we are set at this position, but I would consider trading Williams and getting a guy that fills another spot. Then in free agency you sign a guy like Mike Patterson.
LB
We know Levy has one of the spots filled, but I don't think you can chalk him in at MLB. Follett would be a decent starter and an excellent backup/special teams guy if he returns healthy. Best wishes to him and he needs to worry about himself first. A LB will be drafted and I am penciling the LB in as a starter. Manny Lawson wants to play in the 4-3 and with few teams running the 4-3, there isn't as much competition for probably the best OLB left in free agency. Then you move to signing an inside LB. I have to say that we have an excellent shot at getting a top young LB. Stephen Tulloch has ties with Schwartz obviously and hopefully he can pull off another KVB signing. Then Paul Poluszny is a guy that is going to want out of Buffalo. Nothing has been said about the Bills franchising him, but they really need to rebuild around this guy. I can't see him wanting to stay in Buffalo if he gets the chance to leave. Between OLB Lawson, ILBs Poluszny, and Tulloch, I think we have an excellent shot at getting one if free agency starts. Guys like Palmer and Vinny would be good backups and special team guys. I'm hoping Tulloch, Levy, and Follett are our guys. Now there is a lot of contingency there with Follett and Tulloch.
CB
Simple enough, sign one and draft one. As I posted Prince is possible at a great deal. We need to sign Houston or someone else. Then in the draft we need to get a starter that Spievey did not turn out to be.
S
John Wendling needs to be a high priority. This guy is a special teams beast. I know people making tackles on special teams and downing the ball isn't flashy, but it is a vastly underrated part of the game. I think we are set at this position and won't consider anyone else if the Lions believe that Spievey will come around in a year or two. With the signing of Coleman that will bring some competition to the table for the Spievey and Coleman and hopefully make them better. Surprisingly enough this is secondary position that is filled.
Now I will be doing my first mock draft sometime this weekend.
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