Not too much to talk about for Lions fans.
I don't think we need to worry too much about QBs. We're one WRs 40 and Tavon Austin just ran an unofficial 4.25. He'd be tough to pass up in the second round. Marquise Goodwin also ran a 4.25 unofficially.
Austin ran a 4.34 and Goodwin 4.27 now official.
This is clearly a deep WR and RB class with no stars. I will say I see why Patterson is the top WR in the class. He's a big guy and ran like a 4.37 unofficially. The guy is a freak athlete. He's not in our consideration at all.
Knile Davis 4.3 his draft stock dropped when John L came in this year. He could be a great late round pick. Le'avon Bell 4.52 mike gillislee 4.5. Bell is faster then people expected, but had such a workload he'll still probably be available in the 5th round. Guy is an athlete. These times are still unofficial, but hopefully aren't to far off.
This is a deep WR and runningback group. I don't know that there is a star player. I think you'll get great value late in the round. I think someone like Marcus Lattimore 4th round. Marquise Goodwin a 4th round WR. Someone like Andre Ellington and Ryan Swope are 4th rounders. Probably a mistake giving up a 4th rounder last year on Tahir. I think rounds 1-3 Lions need to stick to OL and defense. The 5-6 there will be people there. Le'veon Bell maybe. WR and RB shouldn't be picked till the 4th round which we don't have one and we better not continue to give up a future pick. We have a lot of needs. We need to continue to build over the years and not waste the future.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Saturday, February 23, 2013
The Ideal Lions Draft
It's part of day 1 in the combine and watched Joeckel, Fisher, Frederick, and more intently. My hopes are really high right now. GM Buddy Nix of the Bills has blatantly said that they want to draft a franchise QB and will trade up to do so. Maybe he knows they don't like anyone and trying to make a market. In a draft year where there seems to be very few prize possessions there might become a huge market for the 5th spot and here's why. If you want to trade up to draft you'll want to leapfrog the Browns and the Cardinals if you want a QB. Now keep in mind the Chiefs get who they want. Now in an ideal world maybe the Chiefs want Geno and the Bills want Barkley. I think that might be a stretch from what people are saying.
Now I think Joeckel is a prize possession and will be tough to pass up. Especially considering i consider Reiff a great fit at RT. People really fell in love with Fisher from CMU today. I still see him as a early to mid first round guy. Now this isn't the greatest draft. I just think you get the same value lower. In fact Chance Warmack looked like a beast.
If the Lions can trade down with the Bills. This would be great if they could and pick up a 2nd rounder. There are so many people the Lions can target lower and I believe they get better value and getting that 2nd round pick can really help do wonders similar to the Rams last year.
In the first round I think Joeckel and Fisher are definitely gone at 8. Warmack is a maybe. The Cardinals could very well pick him if Fisher and Joeckel are gone and they are likely to be. Werner is likely still available. Milliner likely available. Possibly Lane Johnson who has really moved up today. Kenny Vaccaro should be available. I really think you're choosing between Milliner, Warmack, Werner, and Vaccaro. Very well could trade down again and get better value. These 4 guys are looking like great players. There is also Jonathon Banks. Some people like Desmond Trufant more because of how raw Banks is.
Now the second round pick. There is a couple of guys I really like. Jonathon Cooper the guard out of UNC is getting good reviews. I'm not that high on him, but I do think he would have good value mid 2nd round. early second wouldn't be a reach. Part of me thinks Jarvis Jones might be a Bowers and completely fall down. Possibly Mingo. That's probably a stretch. There's a chance Banks or Trufant is there. Talk about really any WR might be there. I really do like Tavon Austin, but I just simply don't want to throw a second round pick on a speedy receiver. I think you can get a speedy receiver later and the Vikings proved that with their WR out of Arkansas I guy I said the Lions should target.
Three guys that I really like that are in Lions must fill spots. Arthur Brown, Matt Elam, and Xavier Rhodes. I've said I think Rhodes is highly underrated. I think Brown and Elam are chance guys. I don't think the Lions can take a chance on Elam though because of his run in with the law.
Elam is a very instinctive guy. Little undersized then you would like. He loves hitting. I hate that I have to say this but I do. He loves hitting too much in a league with payer safety you can't lead with your head. He doesn't wrap up like he should. In coverage he tends to face guard and he very well could be a nickel guy. He can do a lot of things. He does do a great job of swiping at the hands when it does get there. I don't think his interceptions where where whoa ballhawk maybe one or two. Now at least he does catch the ball. I don't think the Lions can take a chance on him.
Arthur Brown is an undersized ILB. Great spead. He needs to bulk up. I am interested to see his measurables at the combine. He really does a good job of really using his body to fill gaps. He's more of a pass coverage LB. I think he'd be a little bit of a liability in the running game. Very similar to Levy. What I like about Brown is that he gives us a LB that can blitz of the edge which is something we don't have. One of that reasoning being we play a wide 9 which apparently isn't going anywhere. In a wide 9 I think we need big stout run stuffing guys. Unblocked weakside Brown did a great job. He's supposedly a playmaker. I don't put him in that category. His turnovers were on tip balls that floated there for him.
Xavier Rhodes he's there in round 2 I'll be yelling at the tv to take him. This guy is athletic, big guy, and he's a playmaker. He's a no brainer.
Lions trade down they can fill their immediate need on the offense of line with Warmack. They could possibly help out the DBs with Vaccaro or Milliner. In the second round they could make significant help with pass coverage with Brown and Rhodes. Very realistic that Warmack, Brown, and Rhodes.
Lions Free Agency
Value is always the key when it comes to a league with a salary cap. Your looking at about $120 million for the cap. You're supposed to setup contracts to increase with the cap so they take up about the same percentage wise. Now the Lions have needed help on the cap and moved salary issues from one year to the next. Just delaying the issue. Now 51 players count towards that cap. You average $2.35 mill per player. Any player over that mark needs to be worth that many more players. That's where I'm talking about value.
Stafford is over $20 million currently. Everyone is speculating that Stafford's restructure will free cap space, but if he's going to have a bigger contract that's a huge mistake. He should probably count more against the cap this year. Now over 1/5 of the cap space is tied up in quarterbacks alone and there are more then 5 positions total. Stafford makes right around Tom Brady. Best is a killer because he makes just under $2 mill and it's a guaranteed rookie contract and there's little that can be done. It's huge if Best plays. Lions cannot keep investing in RBs and WRs. Titus Young will count just under $1 mill just pure debt weight. Now Megatron makes $12.2 mill. In a league where WRs and RBs are a dime a dozen this kills the Lions, but Megatron is a special player and is worth the money. Suh costs over $18 mill. That's a huge issue. Drafting early pre rookie salary cap is a killer. I cannot say that Suh is with $18 mill, but he was the second overall draft pick. For someone that doesn't play the run, I'll be happy when his salary has expired. If someone wants to pay him $15 mill a year that's fine, but I just hope it's not Detroit.
On the safe end the Lions have $12 million of free cap space. Keep in mind there are a ton of players to sign. Lions need too not continue to dig themselves in a deeper hole. Tulloch is the only starting LB under contract. On the entire DL there are only 2 names that I even recognize. Suh and Fairley. There are a few restricted free agents on that list, but of that $12 they will need some of it. Talking at least 4 DEs and 2 DTs.
As much as I'd like to see the Lions draft Tavon Austin and Marcus Lattimore I worry about dead money down the road on the same position where the position is a dime a dozen. Lions need safeties and CBs badly. Their offense should be high powered enough with all the money there. You can't put more money in the offense and improve the CBs unless you get some diamond in the roughs which the Lions have on the DL. I wouldn't mind seeing if they can step up this year.
Lets take a look at the Lions big free agents.
Avril
What Avril is looking for will take up the majority of the cap and have a back logged issue. The Lions cannot sign him anywhere near what he wants. Personally I don't think there's room for half of what he wants and he'll get that on the market. The Lions didn't get to the QB last year. The DL was also horrible against the run. Avril is probably valued on the high end of $7.5 mill. Which most people will over pay. Someone is worth what someone is willing to pay. Lions just can't afford sadly it's a business and Avril needs to play for someone else next season for the first time in his career. Side note it's understood that it is a business. People like Revis holding out saying it's a business and he wants a new contract. Then when it isn't on his end it's no longer a business. If you haven't heard he's complaining about getting traded and not told anything. It's tough Avril needs to do what is best for himself and he can get more money elsewhere and we can't blame him. We also can't blame organizations for cutting players
There are actually a few DEs on the market. That are around Avril's age. I think that's what entices the Lions the most they drafted him and he's only 27. One player that might be undervalued is William Hayes of the Rams. They have Chris Long and Robert Quinn. He's a great DE, but he's just not better then those two. Signing Hayes, Jackson, and Young and makes a lot more sense then Avril. Hayes is 28 years old.
Delmas
Delmas will hopefully be retained right around the 51 man average. He's so fast and covers so much ground, but when he only plays a couple of games it's hard to play a player. This one is tough. Limited cap space and a star player that has been injured. The Lions need two safeties. I think this one should workout. Hopefully he has a healthy season.
It helps that similar to Avril Delmas isn't the bell of the ball this year. Some years both of them could possibly be, but not this year. Byrd is probably the prize possession this year. Same age as Delmas at 26. Goldson and Reed are also free agents. 49ers have the cap space to offer Goldson a big contract.
Durant and Levy
It will be tough to retain both of them. It seems to me that the league is turning into a 3-4 league. Personally I think retaining Durant and Levy are free agent priority 1. I say that because I'd rather have consistent players money tied up then injury proned Delmas. Delmas should be the next priority then Young and Jackson. Why Durant and Levy 1 though? They compliment each other and a cohesive LB group is important. The more Levy, Durant, and Tulloch play together the better they should be. Knowing strengths and weaknesses around you are important. Now realistically Levy lacks run support and Durant lacks pass coverage skills meaning the OLB compliment one another. On paper each LB is only a two down back. Letting Levy play weakside helps him play the run support role. With Levy that helps Durant take a breather in nickel and dime situations. They're both young and have a lot to learn. If they can progress this could be a great trio.
Stafford is over $20 million currently. Everyone is speculating that Stafford's restructure will free cap space, but if he's going to have a bigger contract that's a huge mistake. He should probably count more against the cap this year. Now over 1/5 of the cap space is tied up in quarterbacks alone and there are more then 5 positions total. Stafford makes right around Tom Brady. Best is a killer because he makes just under $2 mill and it's a guaranteed rookie contract and there's little that can be done. It's huge if Best plays. Lions cannot keep investing in RBs and WRs. Titus Young will count just under $1 mill just pure debt weight. Now Megatron makes $12.2 mill. In a league where WRs and RBs are a dime a dozen this kills the Lions, but Megatron is a special player and is worth the money. Suh costs over $18 mill. That's a huge issue. Drafting early pre rookie salary cap is a killer. I cannot say that Suh is with $18 mill, but he was the second overall draft pick. For someone that doesn't play the run, I'll be happy when his salary has expired. If someone wants to pay him $15 mill a year that's fine, but I just hope it's not Detroit.
On the safe end the Lions have $12 million of free cap space. Keep in mind there are a ton of players to sign. Lions need too not continue to dig themselves in a deeper hole. Tulloch is the only starting LB under contract. On the entire DL there are only 2 names that I even recognize. Suh and Fairley. There are a few restricted free agents on that list, but of that $12 they will need some of it. Talking at least 4 DEs and 2 DTs.
As much as I'd like to see the Lions draft Tavon Austin and Marcus Lattimore I worry about dead money down the road on the same position where the position is a dime a dozen. Lions need safeties and CBs badly. Their offense should be high powered enough with all the money there. You can't put more money in the offense and improve the CBs unless you get some diamond in the roughs which the Lions have on the DL. I wouldn't mind seeing if they can step up this year.
Lets take a look at the Lions big free agents.
Avril
What Avril is looking for will take up the majority of the cap and have a back logged issue. The Lions cannot sign him anywhere near what he wants. Personally I don't think there's room for half of what he wants and he'll get that on the market. The Lions didn't get to the QB last year. The DL was also horrible against the run. Avril is probably valued on the high end of $7.5 mill. Which most people will over pay. Someone is worth what someone is willing to pay. Lions just can't afford sadly it's a business and Avril needs to play for someone else next season for the first time in his career. Side note it's understood that it is a business. People like Revis holding out saying it's a business and he wants a new contract. Then when it isn't on his end it's no longer a business. If you haven't heard he's complaining about getting traded and not told anything. It's tough Avril needs to do what is best for himself and he can get more money elsewhere and we can't blame him. We also can't blame organizations for cutting players
There are actually a few DEs on the market. That are around Avril's age. I think that's what entices the Lions the most they drafted him and he's only 27. One player that might be undervalued is William Hayes of the Rams. They have Chris Long and Robert Quinn. He's a great DE, but he's just not better then those two. Signing Hayes, Jackson, and Young and makes a lot more sense then Avril. Hayes is 28 years old.
Delmas
Delmas will hopefully be retained right around the 51 man average. He's so fast and covers so much ground, but when he only plays a couple of games it's hard to play a player. This one is tough. Limited cap space and a star player that has been injured. The Lions need two safeties. I think this one should workout. Hopefully he has a healthy season.
It helps that similar to Avril Delmas isn't the bell of the ball this year. Some years both of them could possibly be, but not this year. Byrd is probably the prize possession this year. Same age as Delmas at 26. Goldson and Reed are also free agents. 49ers have the cap space to offer Goldson a big contract.
Durant and Levy
It will be tough to retain both of them. It seems to me that the league is turning into a 3-4 league. Personally I think retaining Durant and Levy are free agent priority 1. I say that because I'd rather have consistent players money tied up then injury proned Delmas. Delmas should be the next priority then Young and Jackson. Why Durant and Levy 1 though? They compliment each other and a cohesive LB group is important. The more Levy, Durant, and Tulloch play together the better they should be. Knowing strengths and weaknesses around you are important. Now realistically Levy lacks run support and Durant lacks pass coverage skills meaning the OLB compliment one another. On paper each LB is only a two down back. Letting Levy play weakside helps him play the run support role. With Levy that helps Durant take a breather in nickel and dime situations. They're both young and have a lot to learn. If they can progress this could be a great trio.
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