Tuesday, February 15, 2011

2011 Detroit NFL draft 1st round trading up scenarios

I'm going to use ESPN's pick value chart to try and exclude biases. I think a big question we have to ask ourself is how many of these elite tackles are going to be available in the 2nd round for us. I believe it was 2008 when offensive lineman just ran of the board and some were reaches. I've seen almost all of the top 5 tackles taken at 13.

Trading up
I think trading up is only worth 3 players, those being Peterson, Prince, and Miller. These are kind of best case scenarios that are realistic.

I'm not that high on Miller and this still pre-combine. Everyones stock can easily go up and down. To me Miller is just speed rush DE, but I know a lot of you are really high on him. Lets say he's available at 8. 8 is worth 1400 and 13 is worth 1150. Which means your giving up your 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th round pick for Miller. I'd rather go Brandon Harris at 13, T in the 2nd round, and a LB in the third round. I think there's going to be a couple of decent LB in the third round a Greg Jones, Casey Matthews, Strudivant, or Hightower. If prince and Miller are still on the board do we really move up to take Miller, No. Prince is off the board for Miller, I'll give up a 4th round pick. A 4th round pick sounds extremely unrealistic.

Prince is so highly touted. Numerous mock drafts have him going at 9, so that's were I'm going to have us trade up. Your giving up a 1st and a 3rd round pick for Prince according to the chart. If someone says you give us the 13th pick and your 3rd round pick and you get prince, I'm taking that in a heartbeat. A 1st and a 2nd is worth contemplating. Let me know what you guys think. With a rookie scale coming in, higher draft picks don't hurt you nearly as much. The big question is will we still have the complex rookie contracts? I think giving up a 2nd round for Prince is worth it. We get that elite talent at CB, but we lose a LB or a T in the second round.

Peterson, I'm calling him this years Suh. He's that elite talent that you insert and he's a top talent in the league. I've seen him at 7 with everyone apparently moving up. Personally on my big board he's one and Green is two. Him falling to 7 actually is realistic. We would give up a 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th. We don't have a 7th round pick and besides teams tend to over pay when moving up for a guy anyways. Lets just say we give up a 1st and 2nd. This is ridiculously good. Any you won't take this in a heartbeat, your going to have to enlighten me.

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